Stratospheric Water Vapor Modulation of Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics

1D radiative-chemical-dynamical model of volcanic H2O injection impacts on forcing, ozone, and temperature

+0.12
Peak H2O RF (W/m2)
-0.15
Peak Aerosol RF (W/m2)
+0.04 K
Peak Surface Warming
6.5%
Ozone Loss
1.5 yr
Time to Peak
3.2 yr
H2O e-folding

Radiative Forcing vs H2O Injection Mass

Surface Temperature Response

Ozone Loss vs Injection Mass

Aerosol vs H2O Forcing Competition

Hunga Tonga Case Study

QuantityValue
H2O injection150 Tg
SO2 injection0.4 Tg
Peak H2O RF+0.12 W/m2
Peak aerosol RF-0.15 W/m2
Net RF-0.03 W/m2
Peak surface warming+0.04 K
Time to peak1.5 years
O3 loss6.5%
H2O e-folding time3.2 years

Sensitivity Analysis (SO2=0)

H2O (Tg)RF (W/m2)dT (K)O3 Loss (%)
00.000.0000.0
500.040.0122.2
1000.080.0254.3
1500.120.0386.5
2000.160.0508.1
3000.240.07511.2