Timescale of Geomagnetic Polarity Reversals

Stochastic modeling of reversal duration and cosmic radiation shielding

Key Results

Mean Reversal Duration12.92 kyr
Duration Std Dev0.76 kyr
95% CI (Bootstrap)[12.81, 13.03] kyr
Min Field Fraction0.070
GCR Flux Enhancement8.0x
Ensemble Size200

Reversal Phase Durations

Gauss-Matuyama Reversal (2.58 Ma)

Duration12.91 kyr
Min Field Fraction0.057
Min Cutoff Rigidity0.85 GV
GCR Enhancement8.0x
Magnetopause Min3.85 Re
Elevated GCR Time9800 yr

Interval Statistics

Mean Interval0.490 Myr
Reversal Rate2.04 per Myr
Gamma Shape (k)1.564
Gamma KS p-value0.998
Exponential KS p0.001
Max Interval2.203 Myr

Cosmic Ray Shielding

Duration-Field Relationship

MetricValue
Pearson r-0.161
Spearman rho-0.154
Regression R-squared0.026
InterpretationWeak negative correlation