WD 1856+534: Planetary Protection vs. Coincidence

Statistical framework for distinguishing dynamical shielding from observational chance in unpolluted white dwarf systems

Key Results

Population Size10,000 WDs
Planet-hosting WDs500
Protection Model Rate10.2%
Background Rate19.7%
Binomial p-value7.4 x 10^-9
Bayes Factor (log10)6.40
EvidenceDecisive

Pollution Rate Comparison

Power Analysis

WD 1856+534b Debris Outcomes

Future Survey Predictions

WD 1856+534b System Properties

Planet Mass13.8 M_J
Orbital Separation0.02 AU
Protection Efficiency64.4%
Total Shielding18.5%
P(non-detect | protect)0.929
P(non-detect | chance)0.800